It was an ugly headline, even by the standards of the mortgage crisis:

• “US foreclosure filings surge 53 percent in June“

Looking a little closer though, it turns out the numbers aren’t nearly as bad as that Associated Press headline would suggest. Another example of the media piling on with a negative spin was a story suggesting that loan modification programs were simply extending mortgage pain.

Meanwhile, there were two positive signs for the mortgage market:

• Mortgage application activity rose for the second consecutive week
• Mortgage rates eased a bit in early July, after rising significantly in June

In large part, the conclusion drawn from the above depends on whether one is taking a forward-looking or backward-looking view of the market.

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Mortgage news this week painted a picture of a variety of ways people are attempting to cope with the mortgage slump:

• While the housing bill continues to meander its way through Congress, it apparently was not an urgent enough issue to get done before Congress adjourned for its Fourth of July recess
• Hope Now, a mortgage industry alliance, reported that it helped 170,000 homeowners avoid foreclosure in the month of May
• Further evidence that falling behind on a mortgage need not be permanent was seen in the fact that more that 40,000 borrowers who had been behind on their mortgages caught up in May
• The week ending June 27 offered a small sign of broader resiliency in the mortgage market, as mortgage application volume recovered slightly from the year-to-date low set during the prior week

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In housing and mortgage news this week:

• A survey of housing prices revealed a sharp drop in year-over-year values as of the end of April
• Existing home sales recorded a mild uptick in May

Despite the bad news/good news nature of the above developments, they are not as contradictory as they might seem. They do, however, have markedly different implications for existing home owners and potential buyers.

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What’s striking about recent mortgage news is how much of it is dominated by stories about investigations and indictments related to mortgage scams. Federal authorities have announced a nationwide crackdown, and local authorities have been active in many communities as well.

There were other, less dramatic stories on the mortgage front:

• Mortgage application activity stalled as mortgage rates rose
• The Hope Now Alliance, a mortgage industry group, announced plans to help streamline work-out plans for troubled borrowers
• A long-awaited mortgage bill became bogged down in the Senate due to controversy stemming from favorable mortgage rates received by two Senators

These other stories are worth reviewing, but ultimatly they are best put in context by the crackdown on mortgage scams.

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A sharp jump in mortgage rates was the week’s most significant development.

• 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.32%, largely in response to growing inflation fears
• Federal Reserve officials may also respond to the inflation threat, as they’ve begun to hint at possible hikes in the Fed rate later this year
• The grim news on the interest rate front overshadowed what otherwise would have been a bright spot, a bounce back in mortgage application activity

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Even though stocks have rallied lately on improved economic news, mortgage foreclosures continue to hang like a cloud over the scene.

• An easing in unemployment gains and solid May reports from major retailers were the latest items that suggested the economy was continuing to avoid recession
• On the flipside, a mortgage report for the first quarter of 2008 showed that foreclosures and delinquencies continued to rise
• The foreclosure crisis was given its latest human face when it was reported that celebrity Ed McMahon was struggling to keep his mansion out of foreclosure
• Meanwhile, without fanfare, ten-year Treasuries ended May with a yield above 4.0% for the first time this year — a possible portend of higher mortgage rates to come

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Recently-released data on home sales sent mixed signals to prospective buyers:

• The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major markets showed a 14.4% year-over-year decline through the end of March, 2008
• The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the number of new home sales increased 3.3% in the month of April  

While conflicting signals on housing might give home buyers reason to pause, two other developments might spur them to action:

• Revised GDP data strengthened the earlier indication that the U.S. economy avoided slipping into recession in the first quarter of 2008
• Mortgage rates broke out of a month-long holding pattern and showed hints of a possible upward trend

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Mortgage rates edged lower this week, as the prevailing drift of housing news could be seen as good or bad, depending on the perspective.

• Home prices in the first quarter of 2008 were reported to have fallen by 7.7% from the same period a year ago
• Foreclosures for the month of April were reported to be up 65% from one year earlier
• Inflation for April came in at a relatively mild 0.2%

In other words, more bad news for homeowners — at least some of them — but good news for potential home buyers.

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Mortgage rates remained just above 6.0% for the third consecutive week. Some other headlines from the week offer a hint of what’s behind the recent creep upward in those rates:

• Oil and gas prices surged to new record highs, after oil had looked like easing during the previous week
• Retail sales showed unexpected strength in April
• New jobless claims declined in the latest weekly data
• Productivity gains were surprisingly strong in the first quarter

For potential mortgage borrowers, the level of mortgage rates might be the only headline that draws attention, but the broader economic developments can provide some clue as to what to expect in the mortgage market during the weeks and months ahead.

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The past week was chock full of news affecting the mortgage and housing markets:

• Foreclosure notices were reported to have increased by 112% over the past year
• Housing prices nationally were reported to have declined by 12.7% over the past year
• Economic growth for the first quarter of 2008 remained positive, if anemic
• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the seventh time in as many months

In short, a clouded economic picture continues to make this a buyer’s market for financially sound house hunters.

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